Asset managers' survey highlights RevPAR decline

A new survey from the Hospitality Asset Managers Association reveals members’ thoughts, experiences and forecasts for the upcoming year as the hotel industry continues to deal with the ongoing pandemic. Topics ranged from the impact of COVID-19 on revenue per available room to which major brands were viewed as having most effectively addressed guest health and safety concerns. The survey also went into depth on the current and future financial status of participant hotels and made predictions on when the recovery will proceed.

The survey was conducted in preparation for HAMA’s 2020 annual fall meeting, which was held virtually in response to the pandemic. In total, 103 asset managers comprising more than half of membership participated in the survey. 

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“The pandemic has decimated the hospitality and other service-related industries, likely changing the way hotels operate for years to come. The hotel industry has a unique opportunity to ‘reinvent’ itself as it responds to the crisis, elevating cleaning protocols and embracing technology trends, which ideally will lead to a stronger industry once we find ‘the new normal,’” said Kim Gauthier, senior vice president of Hotel Asset Value Enhancement and current president of HAMA. “Our membership responses provide valuable insight into what asset managers are dealing with today, the lack of visibility into the future and what business changes are here to stay. These are very real concerns.’” 

Survey findings show that:

  • Nearly 60 percent are predicting a 50-75 percent decline in RevPAR versus budget for their entire portfolio.
  • While 32 percent of respondents believe non-commercial mortgage-backed securities debt providers have been flexible partners, 40 percent feel they have only been somewhat flexible, and 5 percent don’t believe they’ve been flexible at all.
  • For the 32 percent who did feel their lending partners were being flexible, most of them (41.67 percent) believe that flexibility will end in 4Q20.
  • A full third of membership has concerns that they will either have to hand back keys to their lender or be forced into a sale situation.
  • Nearly half (43.69 percent) predict a 45-60 percent RevPAR decline in 2021 compared to 2019 for their full-service hotels.
  • More than a third (35.92 percent) anticipate a 15-30 percent RevPAR decline in 2021 compared to 2019 for their select- and limited-service hotels.
  • Nearly half (41.75 percent) believe industry RevPAR will return to 2019 levels in 2023. On the more optimistic side, 6.8 percent feel those levels will return in 2022, while 3.88 percent think it will take as long as 2026 to reach those levels again.