Horwath report offers 2020, 2021 hotel performance forecasts

Domestic leisure demand is expected to be fueled by cheap gas and the relaxation of lockdown orders, according to a new report from Horwath HTL. Photo credit: iStock / Getty Images Plus / wildpixel (coronavirus )

A new report from Horwath HTL offers forecasts for hotel industry performance metrics through the rest of this year and 2021. According to the company’s research, the U.S. hotel industry was already set for a non-growth year. Real GDP growth, almost always a reliable indicator of hotel performance, had decelerated in 2019 for the first time in a decade due to weak capital spending, increased tariffs and slowing global growth. Similarly, 2019 RevPAR growth had decelerated from its 10-year average of 3.2 percent to 0.9 percent.

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The COVID-19 pandemic, an external shock that has upended the trajectory of the U.S. and global economy, has forced economists and industry prognosticators to revise their forecasts to account for its impact and to project the timing and nature of the recovery, according to the report.

Though growth rates decelerated, the hotel industry set “highest ever” records in 2019 across four of five key performance metrics (occupancy remained flat):

  • $131.21 average daily rate
  • $86.76 revenue per available room
  • 1.9 billion roomnights available
  • 1.3 billion roomnights sold

Pandemic-influenced 2020 year-end hotel industry estimates:

  • 37.9 percent occupancy (-42.6 percent)
  • $112.91 ADR (-13.9 percent)
  • $42.84 RevPAR (-50.6 percent)

Post-pandemic 2021 forecasts for hotel industry recovery:

  • 59.7 percent occupancy (+57.3)
  • $117.05 ADR (+3.7 percent)
  • $69.86 RevPAR (±63 percent)

As with previous recessions, domestic leisure demand—fueled by cheap gas and the relaxation of lockdown orders—will be the first to bounce back, followed by corporate transient and corporate group demand drivers as a feeling of safety takes hold, according to Horwath.

Click here for the full report.