Knowland has released its debut U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast to deliver predictive insights into event recovery over the next three years. The company will update the model quarterly and the data will be available for anyone to view online.
The MRF demonstrates projected industry recovery patterns and is based on Knowland’s proprietary data and regression models leveraging almost 20 million global events over the last 15 years. The forecast uses a natural recovery model, assuming historic seasonal patterns without major market disruption, to index the recapture of meeting activity compared to baseline levels from 2019. By comparing past data to evolving data trends, hoteliers can better understand relevant changes—and their implications—as the market moves into 2022 and beyond.
Natural recovery model predicts future event activity: The MRF provides ongoing, return-to-normal forecasts to create seasonal velocity metrics over a three-year period to predict when event activity levels will return to 2019 levels. In the current model, Knowland is forecasting by the end of 2021, events will have recovered 28 percent of 2019’s baseline year demand. However, for the period of September to December 2021, that recovery will be at 49 percent, a reflection of the significant uptake in events in the last quarter of the year.
Projected recovery patterns provide insight beyond ADR: As the world begins to return to normal, it is important for hoteliers to gain insight into group activity. While STR forecasts occupancy, average daily rates and revenue per available room, Knowland plans to forecast meetings and events activity, which provides insight for sales staffing, operational planning, and overall growth strategies. Going forward, the forecasted recovery capture is indexed as follows:
- By the end of 2022, Knowland is forecasting 58.3 percent recovery.
- By the end of 2023, Knowland forecasting 86.9 percent recovery. However, by August 2023, Knowland forecasts that individual months will be back to normal levels.
- By the end of 2024, Knowland forecasts 109.8 percent recovery.
Data demonstrates growth to aid operational efficiencies: Knowland’s MRF provides the percentage of demand growth as the industry moves into recovery. Hoteliers can look to the forecast as an additional tool to aid in a variety of operational decisions. The data informs staffing for front desk and housekeeping teams as well as sales teams as they anticipate the return of seasonal demand. At the same time, owners and asset managers can leverage the forecast to optimize their investment in both above property and property level sales by knowing when to begin pre-selling to maximize share capture.