Moscow’s hotel industry is projected to see between 20- and 30-percent growth in RevPAR during June and July 2018, according a report from STR and Tourism Economics.
However, the city's RevPAR growth will be less than the growth seen in Rio de Janeiro in 2014 and Johannesburg in 2010. These cities are key markets for the previous two FIFA World Cup host countries.
Moscow’s ADR is projected to rise between 15 and 20 percent, despite the predicted increase in occupancy between 8 and 10 percent to just under 80 percent during the World Cup months. This will be consistent with previous World Cup tournaments as room rates are more significantly boosted by the event. Demand is expected to remain stable in year-over-year comparisons.
YOY occupancy comparisons are typically hurt due to supply growth and other regular hotel business avoiding the market during major event months although demand is helped by large events like this one. Supply growth leading up to such large events boosts guestroom inventory and pressure on occupancy levels.
Rio de Janeiro saw double-digit occupancy growth in 2014 from the previous June—up 12.6 percent to 81.6 percent—and July—up 18.3 percent to 80.0 percent. ADR increased 72.8 percent and 64.4 percent during these two months, respectively, driving RevPAR to rise 94.5 percent.
Occupancy in Johannesburg jumped from the previous June—up 27.7 percent to 78.5 percent—and grew to a lesser degree in July—up 7.4 percent to 63.7 percent—in 2010. ADR increased 56.3 percent and 44.5 percent in June and July, respectively, driving RevPAR to grow 99.6 percent and 55.1 percent.
Moscow’s room count is substantially higher than Rio and Johannesburg. That also creates less opportunity for a substantial performance boost in percentage terms from a comparable number of additional visitors traveling for the tournament.
Moscow saw occupancy grow 6.7 percent YOY to 65.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018. However, ADR dropped 0.8 percent to RUB5,363.70 during this period.
Preliminary data for May showed improved performance at Moscow's hotels. Occupancy grew 11.5 percent to 74.8 percent as ADR rose 3.1 percent to RUB5,451.5.