STR’s forecasting team expects hotel average daily rate and revenue per available room in the Los Angeles market to reach the second-highest levels for any Super Bowl weekend on record. According to a statement from the analytics company, hotels in the market could achieve an ADR of $445 and a RevPAR of $396 for Feb. 11-13.
“Since July, the Los Angeles hotel market has consistently achieved monthly rates near or above prepandemic levels,” said Blake Reiter, STR’s director of custom forecasts. “Occupancy has been rapidly improving toward 2019 levels as well, but it hasn’t reflected the same degree of recovery. We expect there will be, at least to a certain extent, a curtailing of occupancy because of COVID. Of course, if the NFL decides to switch venues as media reports have suggested, or implement more stringent protocols, L.A. hotel performance will certainly be among the ripple effects.
“L.A. last hosted the Super Bowl nearly 30 years ago in 1993, which makes comparisons difficult as it was a completely different hospitality market back then. As such, we decided to analyze the performance data from more recent Super Bowl weekends in markets such as San Francisco/San Jose and Miami. Though a smaller market, Miami is somewhat similar in terms of typical occupancy levels experienced in February. We also feel that Miami, in particular the luxury segment, carries similar rate upside for VIP travelers.”
The analytics team expects the city's hotel occupancy over the weekend to outperform Tampa, Fla., but fall short of what was seen in Miami. During the comparable weekend in 2020 (Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights), before the start of the pandemic, Los Angeles hotel occupancy was 87.7 percent.
“While we are still in the midst of the pandemic, we don’t anticipate the same degree of COVID impact that we saw in 2021,” Reiter said. “Last year, we did not see the typical two-week lead-up to the game when occupancy begins to tick upwards as production crews, NFL personnel, and game attendees arrive. This year, we are expecting a more substantial level of demand capture ahead of the game. While the lead-up demand won’t be as significant as we would’ve otherwise expected during a non-pandemic year, we can certainly expect an increase compared to what was seen in Tampa.”