Kalibri Labs launches predictive database tool

Somebody uses a computer
The Kalibri Labs database contains daily transaction data sourced directly from almost 35,000 hotels in the U.S. Photo credit: Geber86 / E+

Kalibri Labs is making further upgrades to its hospitality database by providing revenue per available room, occupancy and average daily rates for future dates and by creating greater visibility at the market/submarket level. 

The Kalibri Labs database contains daily transaction data sourced directly from almost 35,000 hotels in the U.S., calculating revenue, ADR, occupancy, rate category contributions, channel mix, arrival/departure dates, lead time, length of stay, loyalty contribution and corresponding costs of acquisition measures.

“While these upgrades had been underway with our [research and development] team for almost two years, due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, their release couldn’t have come at a better time,” noted Cindy Estis Green, founder and CEO of Kalibri Labs. “With the industry facing a daunting challenge emerging from the COVID pandemic, the need to understand more granular market dynamics and patterns of recovery is greater than ever.”

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The first major improvement is the extension of the Kalibri Labs data to include forward-looking revenue, ADR, occupancy and RevPAR. The Kalibri Labs database now has all performance metrics for every U.S. market, submarket and individual hotel available from 2015 through 2021 with a continuous rolling weekly update of 12 to 18 months into the future. This forward-looking data is available in all Kalibri Labs products, including the HummingbirdPXM digital platform as well as market and submarket reports. Using predictive modeling and machine learning, future forecasted data has similar measures and dimensions as historical data representing daily, weekly, monthly and annualized revenue, ADR, occupancy, rate category, channel, arrival/departure dates, lead time, length of stay, loyalty contribution and dimensions.

As part of their recent data integration into CBRE’s Hotel Horizons forecast, Kalibri Labs and CBRE conducted an extensive analysis to identify markets and submarkets that accurately reflected today’s hotel supply density. The outcome of this assessment was the creation of 335 markets and 972 submarkets with substantially more tightly defined geographic boundaries than any previously used designations. In addition, each market was classified into one of nine location types to delineate more accurately between urban, suburban and airport locations within primary and secondary markets, as well as small metro, rural and resort/destination to avoid overlap between location types.

“The main advantage of these enhancements is a more refined and accurate assessment of market and submarket dynamics,” said Mark Lomanno, senior advisor and partner at Kalibri Labs and a long-time industry analyst of market-level performance. “Changes account for both supply and demand changes as well as all of Kalibri Labs advanced metrics. For example, no longer will those evaluating the Boston market have to combine the airport and downtown areas in one market Trendline report. And the ability to look at market demand by length of stay or to more accurately assess flow through and profit contribution is an important boon to real estate investors.”

“Anticipating future revenue performance for a hotel, submarket or market is incredibly powerful, whether you are budgeting, monitoring an operating property or evaluating an asset to buy, sell or refinance,” Estis Green added. “We were asked by owners, operators, asset managers and revenue teams if we could provide guidelines to assist in their efforts to underwrite and forecast for future periods. After a thorough research and development process, the Kalibri Labs team delivered and is well prepared to support the industry through this recovery.”

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