As expected, Canada’s hotel performance fell month over month, but continued a stretch of year-over-year growth, according to CoStar’s November 2023 data.
November 2023 (percentage change from November 2022):
- Occupancy: 62.1 percent (+0.5 percent)
- Average daily rate: CAD179.18 (+5.8 percent)
- Revenue per available room: CAD111.19 (+6.4 percent)
“Canada hotel performance returned to single-digit growth in November,” Laura Baxter, CoStar Group’s director of hospitality analytics for Canada, said in a statement. “This performance is steady given the likely contraction of the wider economy. Room rates drove most of the RevPAR growth, with all segments experiencing an increase, albeit at a slower pace. This result confirms the trend of slowing ADR growth over the last few months, particularly with transient rates, which showed a 4.7 percent year-over-year lift—the smallest increase since early 2021. Softer room rate growth is expected to continue through mid-2024, with declines expected for a short time before returning to positive territory.
“The marginal occupancy increase outperformed our forecast, which predicted a minor decline. Year-over-year improvements in group occupancy helped keep the metric afloat, and although it’s too early to call this a trend, it is a step in the right direction as occupancy from that segment remains 11 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Stronger group demand was also evident for full-service, urban and suburban hotels. Occupancy contractions continued for limited-service hotels, however, the segment’s room rate growth remains robust, outperforming the national average by 1.1 percentage points.”
Top Markets
Among the provinces and territories, Manitoba recorded the highest November occupancy level (70.6 percent), which was 7.5 percent below 2022.
Among the major markets, Toronto saw the highest occupancy (74.1 percent), which was 1 percent behind November 2022.
The lowest occupancy among provinces was reported in Prince Edward Island (46.5 percent), down 22.5 percent against 2022. At the market level, the lowest occupancy was reported in Edmonton (+4 percent to 55.7 percent).
“Looking ahead, we expect occupancy to decline each month through the end of Q1 2024,” said Baxter. “Downward pressure on discretionary spending is anticipated, largely due to higher interest rates cycling through to more mortgage holders with renewals on the horizon.”