Two surveys from industry associations suggest that business travel may continue to struggle for several more years, with respondents indicating concerns about travel while the COVID-19 delta variant continues.
AHLA
U.S. business travelers are scaling back travel plans amid rising COVID-19 cases, with 67 percent planning to take fewer trips, 52 percent likely to cancel existing travel plans without rescheduling, and 60 percent planning to postpone existing travel plans, according to a new national survey conducted by Morning Consult on behalf of the American Hotel & Lodging Association.
Despite an uptick in leisure travel over the summer, the new survey highlights the dim outlook for business travel and events, which account for more than half of hotel revenue and aren’t expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024.
Of the AHLA survey of 2,200 adults, 414 people—or 18 percent of respondents—are business travelers—that is, those who either work in a job that typically includes work-related travel or who expect to travel for business at least once between now and the end of the year.
Among the key findings:
- 67 percent are likely to take fewer trips, while 68 percent are likely to take shorter trips
- 52 percent say they are likely to cancel existing travel plans with no plans to reschedule
- 60 percent are likely to postpone existing travel plans until a later date
- 66 percent are likely to only travel to places they can drive to
The survey also tested attitudes among 1,590 people (72 percent of respondents) who are likely to attend large gatherings, meetings, and events—all key drivers of hotel revenue.
Among the key findings:
- 71 percent are likely to attend fewer in-person events or gatherings
- 67 percent are likely to have shorter meetings or events
- 59 percent are likely to postpone existing meetings or events until a later date
- 49 percent say they are likely to cancel existing meetings or events with no plans to reschedule
According to a recent Deloitte survey, corporate travel is projected to remain at only 30 percent of 2019 levels through the end of 2021. This lack of corporate travel would cost the hotel industry an estimated $59 billion in 2021, according to leading economists, underscoring the need for targeted federal relief such as the Save Hotel Jobs Act.
The lack of business travel and events has major repercussions for employment both directly on hotel properties, and in the broader community. Hotels are expected to end 2021 down nearly 500,000 jobs compared to 2019. For every 10 people directly employed on a hotel property, hotels support an additional 26 jobs in the community, from restaurants and retail to hotel supply companies—meaning an additional nearly 1.3 million hotel-supported jobs are also at risk.
GBTA
According to the latest poll from the Global Business Travel Association, the rise of the delta variant and other variants has become a cause for uncertainty and increased concern over the past month.
This poll is the 22nd in a series tracking the pulse of GBTA’s membership of global travel buyers, suppliers and other stakeholders on how the business travel industry overall is navigating the return to travel, post pandemic. This latest poll also included questions about the Delta variant and other variants and their potential impact on business travel.
Some findings include:
- In the August poll, 72 percent of GBTA travel buyers felt their employees are willing or very willing to travel for business in the current environment (fairly consistent with 77 percent in July). And non-essential domestic business travel continues to be more frequently allowed. In terms of travel in the past 30 days, 60 percent reported it is sometimes or usually allowed.
- Over half of GBTA members and stakeholders report they expect business travel will see a significant (8 percent) or moderate (47 percent) increase in the September to November 2021 timeframe. Respondents from Europe (75 percent) are more likely than those in North America (51 percent) to expect that business travel will see a significant or moderate increase in this timeframe.
- When travel buyers and procurement professionals were asked how company travel spend had changed compared to the prior month, over half (56 percent) reported their company’s spending increased somewhat to a lot. When travel suppliers and travel management companies were asked about their bookings in the previous week, almost half (46 percent) report their bookings had remained the same.
- Poll respondents reported a slight increase in reopening international and domestic travel versus the month prior. In the current poll, 78 percent had not opened international travel, compared to 86 percent in July. Forty-one percent have not re-opened domestic travel, versus 50 percent last month. Fewer respondents (51 percent) reported they continue to suspend or cancel all business travel regardless of location (down from 60 percent in the July poll).
- Despite growing concerns about the Delta variant, only 21 percent of GBTA stakeholders say their company has introduced new restrictions on non-essential business travel at this point. Almost half (49 percent) said their company is unlikely to introduce new restrictions, while 25 percent are considering introducing new restrictions. Respondents from Europe (66 percent) are more likely than those in North America (45 percent) to report their company is unlikely to introduce new restrictions on non-essential business travel specifically as a result of the Delta variant (or other variants) and/or the growing number of COVID-19 cases in many countries.
Rise of the Delta Variant Detours Progress
When it came to how the delta variant is affecting business travel, GBTA found that:
- One-third (34 percent) of supplier and travel management company respondents say they are optimistic about the financial prospects of companies in the business travel sector, but less so compared to a month ago. An additional one in four (38 percent) says they feel neither optimistic nor pessimistic; however, 26 percent say they feel pessimistic about the industry’s financial prospects.
- GBTA stakeholders are concerned or very concerned about the revenue impact the Delta variant poses to companies when it comes to revenue in the business travel sector (85 percent), employment/re-hiring (79 percent) and the safety of business travel (78 percent). Forty-four percent felt it would have a very negative impact, while 37 percent indicated it would have a moderate negative impact. In terms of bookings, 31 percent reported a decrease, compared to the prior week, versus 3 percent in the July poll.
- Eight in ten travel buyers/procurement professionals who work for companies that have not yet resumed non-essential business travel report their company is likely to delay the resumption of non-essential domestic (81 percent) and international (79 percent) business travel due to the Delta variant (and other variants). Business travel for large, medium and small meetings, events or conferences were also most frequently cited as being cancelled or suspended due to COVID-19 variants.
How Vaccination Policies Factor
In the poll, GBTA found a range of responses regarding vaccination policies and employee safety protocols:
- Almost half of respondents said vaccine requirements to perform key business functions are not typically required. Approximately one in five reported their company requires employees to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in order to travel domestically for business (21 percent), meet customers face to face (22 percent), work in the office (20 percent) and attend large meetings, conferences or events (22 percent). However, approximately one in four report they are unsure about their company’s vaccine requirements for travel for key business functions.
- Respondents from Europe (66 percent) are more likely than those in North America (52 percent) to report their company will not require employees to receive a COVID-19 vaccine before they can meet with clients and customers face to face. Sixty-two percent in Europe are more likely than those in North America (49 percent) to report their company will not require employees to receive a COVID-19 vaccine before they can attend large (more than 500 attendees) meetings or events.
- Most respondents (79 percent) report their company has procedures in place for contact tracing should an employee become infected with COVID-19. Only one in five (21 percent) report their company does not have procedures in place for contact tracing.